Royal Troon will host its tenth Open Championship this year, the last of which was perhaps the most enthralling of any in recent memory.
In 2016, Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson had separated themselves from the rest of the field by Sunday before battling out a thrilling final round, littered with birdies and punctuated by extraordinary approach shots. Dubbed ‘High Troon’ by some, it was a renewal that was been likened to the fabled ‘Duel in the Sun’ between Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus at Turnberry in 1977. Nicklaus thought it was even better. Stenson posted a 63 (then tying the lowest round in a major championship) and finished with a winning total of 264, another major championship record.
I somehow doubt that we will get anything resembling that tournament, at least aesthetically. The Swede and the Californian, both in their forties and wearing black, exuded golfing elegance that year – professionals who found themselves in that position through the gracefulness of their swing more than anything else. In many ways, that final round was the old golfing world in microcosm, one which is being swallowed by the world of garish sponsorship and muscularity. But if there’s one tournament in which cultured golf is still rewarded, it’s this. That said, the Claret Jug did go the way of a big-game hunter last year.
Royal Troon
The Ayrshire course is built around the prevailing north-westerly wind. The opening holes head south-east with the wind, typically coinciding with lower scoring but also making it difficult to stop the ball in firm conditions. The first six holes hug the coastline, with the amended 6th now the longest hole in Open Championship history at 623 yards. At the 7th, the course turns inwards. The iconic 8th (‘Postage Stamp’) is the shortest hole on the Open rota but fraught with danger. Playing as short as 100 yards into the wind on some days, the tiny green is precariously positioned with run-off areas to all sides and steep bunkers lurking in the depths. In 2016, Stenson spoke of the hole as a site of “potential train wrecks”:
“I believe it’s one of them great little par 3s. On the scorecard it doesn’t look much, but when the wind is blowing and you’ve got to be precise with a 7, 8, 9-iron, something like that, into the wind there, it’s very tricky.”
The back nine continues to face the wind on the way back to the clubhouse and brings into play deep bunkers and swathes of gorse and fescue. It also comes with a number of blind shots, including from the new tee box on the 10th, which requires players to carry it over large sand hills. Troon lies like a sleeping dragon, ready to breath fire when weather wakes it from slumber.
The Lie of the Green
Strong recent performances are always crucial arriving at this tournament. In other words, winners are unlikely to suddenly find form at the Open. Nine of the last ten winners had recorded a top-10 in at least one of their last three starts. Brian Harman had not won on the PGA Tour for six years but though his victory last year was undoubtedly a shock, he did arrive on the back of a run of 2-9-12 in his previous three tournaments.
Historically, a strong performance in a previous Open Championship has been an indication of things to come. This is the major in which experience is paramount, and every winner between 2011 and 2019 had at least one top-10 to their name in a previous Open. This perceived wisdom has taken a slight knock in recent seasons. Collin Morikawa’s victory in 2021 was his Open Championship debut, while Cameron Smith had a best finish of 20th. Yet I see these as exceptions rather than symptoms of the dwindling importance of links pedigree. Morikawa was riding the crest of a (heat)wave and if you look closer at Smith’s previous appearances, he had been in amongst the top-10 at different junctures. Under these conditions at Troon, I would be surprised if the winner was so green.
Accuracy, particularly off the tee, seems key to unlocking the golf course here. Stenson used a 3-wood for much of 2016 and ended up 5th for fairways hit and 1st for GIR. Keeping a low ball flight out of the wind seems one of the ways to tackle Troon, particularly up the back nine. Adam Scott described the importance of this in 2004:
“Coming back, anything up in the air is going to be hit by the wind. I’ve seen some balls out there the last couple of days moving 20, 30, 40 yards up in the wind if it just gets up in the air a bit. So I think there’s going to be a premium on keeping it as low to the ground coming back in into the wind, and hopefully running it up to the fronts of the greens, which is a pretty good position.”
As ever, those that find themselves at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday will have been playing well around the greens. Aside from putting, good scrambling has been a key weapon for the last ten Open winners and greens are particularly hard to find at this venue. In 2016, the first five on the leaderboard ranked 7th, 1st, 4th, 3rd and 2nd respectively for Scrambling.
The key contenders
World number one Scottie Scheffler (5/1) remains the best golfer in the world by some margin and looks set to contend once again. His improved putting this season should serve him well given that he has finished 69th and 74th for that statistic in each of the last two Opens. If you disregard his T-41 at the US Open, in which he admitted to being mentally exhausted after the birth of his first child and arrest at the USPGA, he hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in his last thirteen tournaments, winning six of them. But if there was any major to hesitate in backing him at 5/1 it would be here. He has yet to win in conditions as tough as these and if there’s any weakness to his game, it may be in the bunkers, which look set to play a big part this week.
Rory McIlroy (7/1) finds himself at the single-figure price we are accustomed to end his major drought. As ever, I hope he does just that, but following yet another sudden collapse at Pinehurst just a month ago, I’d need to see him get over the final hurdle in a major championship before siding with him. Placed in 6 of the last 8 Open Championships, he was fifth at Troon in 2016 from the wrong side of the draw and T-4 at the Scottish Open last week was a good sign. That said, his problems on weeks like this are rarely form-related.
Xander Schauffele (12/1) always appeals in major championships and even more so now that he has won one. His consistency is astonishing – I wrote in last year’s preview that his last missed cut was at the 2022 Masters and that remains the case today. He has posted eleven top-10s this year with form figures of 8-1-7 in the majors and is playing the best golf of his career. The traditional perception of him as a nearly-man can be dispensed with and I would not be surprised if he went on to snatch his second major in the same season as his first. He ranks 1st for Scrambling on the PGA Tour this season and warmed up nicely at the Scottish Open last week, a tournament which he won in 2022. He is priced accordingly, though, and outside of Carnoustie, he has never ended an Open round inside the top 10. 12/1 seems a little on the short side, frankly.
Sitting in behind the top three is Ludvig Aberg (16/1), who has enjoyed a meteoric rise since his inclusion in the Ryder Cup as a wildcard. The 24-year-old has made his way up to fourth in the World Rankings and was a very impressive runner-up in the Masters this year. He looks certain to win a major very soon and showed very promising signs with a T-4 in the Scottish Open last week. It will be no surprise to see him in contention, but conditions were relatively docile at Renaissance and you’d have to be brave to take 16/1 on someone who has never played in an Open Championship. The 2021 champion Collin Morikawa (14/1) did manage to win on his Open debut, but that was at 40/1 and he comes into this tournament trending in the right direction. He hinted at nothing coming into the Masters this year before cruising into one shot off the lead after the third round. A final round 74 meant that he finished in third but he has proven his return to form with five top-10s since. He is yet another from the group finishing T-4 at Renaissance last week and ticks all the right boxes regarding accuracy and scrambling. US Open champion Bryson DeChambeau (18/1) has performed the best of anyone at this year’s majors (6-2-1) but his Open record outside t Andrew’s is off-putting, while Jon Rahm (25/1) has a much more appealing links pedigree and looks a better bet at 25/1 despite a patchy season.
Of those at bigger prices, Tom Kim (50/1) has taken a liking to links golf, not least when finishing second last year despite opening with a 74 and injuring himself at his rental house that night. He followed that first round with 68/68/67, confirming the promise he had shown in the Scottish Open, when he would have earned a play-off with Schauffele had he birdied rather than bogeyed the last hole. Patrick Cantlay (45/1) is playing tremendous golf this season and has drifted out to a very backable price. He comes in off the back of consecutive top-5s at the US Open and the Travelers but hasn’t played since then after withdrawing from the John Deere. He finished T-8 at St Andrew’s in 2022 but that came after a good performance in the Scottish Open and given likely conditions, he may suffer from not playing over the past fortnight. 45/1 is generous, though.
Wyndham Clark (60/1) also looks a big price given that he is a recent major champion and currently sitting at world number five. Perhaps it has something to do with his struggles in the majors this season (MC-MC-56) but that didn’t stop him winning the US Open last season and his form elsewhere is good. He arrives here off the back of consecutive top-10s in the Travelers and Scottish Open (final round 62) and, unlike many others, has a win to his name this year. His putting on these kinds of greens will need to improve, though. Sahith Theegala (66/1) is a favourite of mine who is dynamite with his irons and short game. He was yet another to finish T-4 at the Scottish Open last week but I’d have my reservations about him here as he isn’t the most accurate driver of the ball. He also seems to struggle at the start of majors. He’s finished outside the top 100 in five of his ten opening rounds, including last year at Hoylake.
A late qualifier from the Scottish Open last week, Aaron Rai (66/1) could be a dark horse this week. His statistics align perfectly with the test presented by Troon, ranking 1st for Driving Accuracy and 10th for Scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. He was in the top-20 at Royal St George’s in 2021 and stormed home with a 63 at the weekend to finish in the group tied for fourth at Renaissance. At crazy odds, keep an eye out for Shubhankar Sharma (400/1). The Indian has made the cut in each of his three Open appearances and finished eighth in last year’s championship. He carded a 65 in the final round at Renaissance last week and it may be that this style of golf suits him. He can be erratic off the tee but didn’t call on his driver much last year – if he takes the same approach, his short game might see him in the mix for places again.
Selections
Of those already mentioned, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark appeal most, but the selections are as follows:
Tommy Fleetwood @ 20/1 1.5pts EW (10 places)
Fleetwood has confessed to dreaming about winning the Open above all else and has been close to making that a reality with three top-10s, including a second at Portrush in 2019. He arrives here in the middle of a solid if unspectacular season in which he won early and has since been posting quiet top-30s. He is something of a links specialist having grown up playing courses around his hometown of Southport and boasts a fine record in the Scottish Open and the Alfred Dunhill too. Disregarding his performance here in 2016, when he was in terrible form, Troon may prove to be the perfect fit. His swing has been shaped by windy conditions, with a stunted finish to control his ball flight. He ranks fifth on the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy and ninth for Scrambling while consistently being one of the best chippers in the game. The return of caddie and close friend, Iain Finnis, after heart surgery is another welcome boost.
Tyrrell Hatton @ 22/1 1.5pts EW (10 places)
Another Englishman with a soft spot for links golf, Hatton has nine top-10s and thirteen top-20s from his last sixteen starts on Scottish links courses, including two victories in the Alfred Dunhill. He overcame four missed cuts in his first four Open Championships to finish T-5 at Troon in 2016 alongside McIlroy and there is evidence to suggest that this track does suit. He is deadly accurate and has a watertight short game to help him out of trouble when it comes. His driving can be erratic but I hope he adopts the Stenson approach this week. A recent switch to LIV took some getting used to but he is coming to the boil nicely, having won in a canter in Nashville and finished third at Valderrama last week. Returning to familiar ground full of confidence, I see him having a big week.
Tony Finau @ 45/1 1pt EW (8 places)
Finau finished inside the top-30 in each of his first six Open starts, including top-10s at Carnoustie and Portrush, before his putter let him down at Hoylake last season. He made his Open debut at Troon, where he shot an opening round 67 and remained in the top six until a final round 74. For a likeable golfer with such a consistent Open record, 45/1 seems an enormous price. He is 11 from 33 for making the top-10 in any major and, most of all, arrives here in excellent form after a change of putter, having finished 8-3-5 in his last three starts (his first set of consecutive top-10s since January 2023). Everything is in place for Finau to break his major duck.
Shane Lowry @ 45/1 1pt EW (8 places)
The bruising Irishman is available at a bigger price than he was last year which is too tempting to ignore. He is trending in the right direction with finishes of 49-19-9 in his last three tournaments and gave himself a slightly different preparation this year, playing Troon early last week rather than heading to the Scottish Open, where last year he was in a strong position before bogeying the first two holes of his final round. That could prove a shrewd move with the forecast looking uncertain. He is one of the best links golfers around, with wins in the Open and the Irish Open, as well as consistently strong performances in the Scottish Open and Alfred Dunhill. His tee-to-green game is clockwork and a change of equipment saw him finish an unlikely second for SG: Putting at the USPGA. One of my favourite golfers to back, I can’t resist.
Alex Noren 90/1 0.5pt EW (8 places)
Backing Noren comes with strings attached but at 90/1, I think he represents good value to emulate his compatriot, or at least come close. He likes links golf having won the Scottish Open in 2016 and boasting a solid Open record with six top-25s, four of which came in his last five appearances. His overall form has tailed off in the last few years but there are reasons to think he will play well here. He tied for 10th at Renaissance last week in order to secure a late qualifying spot and interestingly stated that it was “a big mental step to understand that I have the game to compete in majors” after the USPGA. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour for Scrambling this year and Swedes have a good record here – Jesper Parnevik finished second in 1997 in addition to Stenson’s victory. Since 2000, only two Open winners have ranked lower than 55th in the World Rankings, which is exactly where he sits.
Suggested bets:
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
1.5pts each way (1-10)
Tyrrell Hatton 22/1
1.5pts each way (1-10)
Tony Finau 45/1
1pt each way (1-8)
Shane Lowry 45/1
1pt each way (1-8)
Alex Noren 90/1
0.5pt each way (1-8)
All 1/5 place terms
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