23 hours ago

Christmas Racing 2024 – tips from Otis Brankin Frisby

Boxing Day

1:05 Aintree – Formby Novices Hurdle 2m1f

This looks like a warm novice hurdle and 2/1 seems a short price about Potters Charm who, though very impressive last time out at Cheltenham, drops down in trip here against a host of last-time out winners with a high ceiling. The one I like is COUNTRY MILE for the Skeltons at 5/1. He was 3 lengths second and keeping on behind Roadlesstravelled at Haydock in November when making a mistake at the last and I fancy him to overturn that form back on better ground. He bolted up under a very confident ride next time out at Cheltenham and given comments made after the race I expect him to improve further with the strong pace forecast here. Kielan Woods takes the ride with Harry Skelton at Kempton but that shouldn’t be a problem. Roadlesstravelled looks to be one of a number of smart novice hurdlers in the O’Neill yard at the moment and seems to find plenty for pressure. The rest of the field all bring different form lines to the table and deserve to take their chance.

Bet: Country Mile @ 5/1 0.5pt Win

1:20 Kempton– Kauto Star Novices Chase 3m

The Jukebox Man looks very smart and may well be Britain’s best staying novice chasing prospect. His novice hurdling form is working out well with the likes of Dancing City, Cherie D’Am and Lecky Watson all winning this season and he was impressive at Newbury when looking like the winner throughout. I think he is the only novice chaser capable of putting it up to the Irish this season. That said, he is a heavy-framed horse who hangs markedly left and the suspicion is that Kempton will not show him in his best light. On that basis, anything around evens is short and I am happy to take him on with HYLAND, who has been campaigned over left-handed tracks so far but jumps well and has posted two RPRs of 146 over 3m at Cheltenham this season. The form of each of those races has worked out well with Transmission, Resplendent Grey and Springwell Bay all running very good races since. His record over fences on good ground reads 2111 and, with conditions in his favour, strikes as a solid proposition with Kempton likely to play into his prominent travelling style. The Jukebox Man could outclass these, so it is not a particularly confident selection.

Bet: Hyland @ 9/2 0.5pt Win

1.55 Kempton – Christmas Hurdle 2m

This will be a race to savour as Lossiemouth avoids her stablemate State Man at Leopardstown and travels over to Kempton to line up against the outstanding Constitution Hill, who reappears exactly a year after winning this race. Lossiemouth is an outstanding mare and unbeaten in six starts, five of which were Grade 1s. Closutton rate her very highly and she undoubtedly poses the biggest challenge to Constitution Hill’s air of invincibility since winning the 2022 Supreme. It is the sort of clash we now usually have to wait until March to see and will be a fascinating match-up, but the public interest is very much with her rival. A handful of setbacks have kept Constitution Hill off the track for a year, making Nicky Henderson the target of vigorous and mostly undeserved criticism from armchairs up and down the country. It has moulded around two much-maligned racecourse gallops, the latest of which saw him come up alongside Sir Gino up the home straight at Newbury before being unable to pass him, prompting clamours of his downfall and even rumours of his retirement. Connections have responded with counterarguments of varying intensity: Henderson hopeful, Nico de Boinville combative and Michael Buckley somewhere in between. Collectively, they have a point. Some think it stiff and unworldly but I respect de Boinville’s fighting talk. He is right to emphasise that the baying public need shutting up, that the inner circle know best. But if there is anything we do know it’s that trainers tend to be creatures of habit and knowing Nicky Henderson, he doesn’t run his horses unless he believes them to be in rude health. The fact he has even been declared here is the best vote of confidence we can hope for. He will be in A1 condition – the question is whether all of his original ability remains. I hope that it does, if not for his remarkable talent then for the sanity of our sport.

2:20 Leopardstown – Racing Post Long Distance Novice Chase 3m½f

BETTER DAYS AHEAD tops the market for this and he is good value against stablemates Croke Park and Stellar Story, who I think are flattered on their best pieces of form. He was a smart novice hurdler last season, winning the Martin Pipe (tipped in this column) before backing that up with a strong performance upped to 3m at Punchestown when a little keen. Though yet to win over three miles, he is by Milan and the Martin Pipe was a gruelling 2m4½f on the New Course where he seemed to outstay his rivals on heavy ground. He took the notable scalp of Slade Steel on chase debut at Navan and should take high rank among the staying novice chasers this season.

Bet: Better Days Ahead @ 11/8 1.5pt Win

2:30 Kempton – King George VI Chase 3m

Competition for this year’s King George seemed thin on the ground earlier this month after Willie Mullins scratched his entries and Fastorslow suffered a season-ending setback, but a handful of late additions have given the race depth of a different kind. JP McManus has supplemented the favourite Spillane’s Tower, while Il Est Francais, scintillating in the novice equivalent last year, is now joined by two other French raiders in Juntos Ganamos and General En Chef. Spillane’s Tower deserves his position at the top of the market on account of his form in top Irish chases, but there are slight concerns over the ground and I’m not yet convinced by his stamina over 3m, or at least not enough to back him at 10/3. Il Est Francais will also be tough to beat if able to replicate his performance in the Kauto Star on this day last year, but that remains a standalone and he burst a blood vessel last time out which has to be of concern. It is not the only setback which has since dented confidence in his ability to run to his best consistently and this test will push him regardless.

Grey Dawning gave a fine account of himself in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, jumping superbly on bottomless ground before clattering the last, which brought to mind a similar race-ending mistake when second to Ginny’s Destiny in his novice chasing days. I was very impressed with how he travelled into that race having run just once previously over 3m. He is clearly very tough and you can’t help but imagine him in chases of a bygone era, his grey frame brushing through birch like it were velvet. He is an outstanding jumper and certainly capable of competing in a Gold Cup but there is the nagging feeling that he may may not have fully recovered from his exertions at Haydock. After such an attritional test he will need to be hard as nails to win here, even if Dan Skelton (an eternal optimist) says he came out of that race unscathed. He should run well and there is a part of me which thinks he might take this race by the scruff of the neck, but I’d rather back him antepost for the Gold Cup at current odds of 16/1.

BANBRIDGE is a horse I have liked ever since backing him for the Martin Pipe in 2022 and is very interesting here on his favoured ground. Given the outlook in early December, Joseph O’Brien and co will be quietly pleased with the recent dry weather, which puts the final touches on a long-term plan originally hatched at the end of last season. They have worked back from this and his performance in the Hilly Way last time out was very encouraging, when he was running a potential career best over 2m (surely short of his optimal trip), giving 10lb and a race to Energumene before unseating Richie Deegan at the last. He is unproven over 3m but that strikes me as circumstantial rather than anything else and given his going preference, it may be that the right opportunity hasn’t yet come up. There is stamina through the dam’s side of the pedigree while Martin Pipe winners tend to stay further than the intermediate trip. Combined with his course form and solid jumping, I think he has a brilliant chance of winning this.

L’HOMME PRESSE makes his first appearance since the Gold Cup in which he travelled beautifully, leading until two out before the extended 3m seemed to stretch him. The King George seems to be his optimum trip and it is easy to forget that he was booked for second behind a peak Bravemansgame in the 2022 renewal when unseating at the last. On the basis of those two runs, a double-figure price here seems generous and almost entirely determined by his 286-day absence. Yet he goes well fresh (has won every race off a break of 200 days+) and if there’s anyone to get one ready for a race like this, it’s Venetia Williams. She is having an astonishing season and having won major staying chases with the likes of Royale Pagaille, Martator, Gemirande and Victorrino, it seems wise to have her stable star on side here.

Running a line through the other runners, I don’t think Corbetts Cross is ready for a race of this nature. He was visually impressive in a National Hunt Chase which totally fell apart and he tends to lose ground at his fences which will be costly in a test where it pays to be with the pace. Envoi Allen could hit the frame but I’d be surprised to see him win this as an 11yo, whilst Bravemansgame seems to have been in regression ever since going to the well in the 2023 Gold Cup. Juntos Ganamos could be underestimated on his French form and is perhaps the most appealing of those at bigger prices.

Prediction: 1. Banbridge 2. Grey Dawning 3. L’Homme Presse

Bet: Banbridge @ 5/1 1pt Win

Bet: L’Homme Presse @ 10/1 0.5pt EW

(Back Grey Dawning for the Gold Cup @ 16/1 EW)

Friday 27th December

1:10 Leopardstown – Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase 2m1f

The mercurial Gaelic Warrior makes his reappearance here in a race which will help shape the Champion Chase picture further. He silenced his critics when running out an emphatic winner of the Arkle last season, jumping straight when many believed he his tendency to go right was insurmountable. There is no doubt that having a lead that day enabled him to do so and connections will be hoping he gets one here. Lucky he is trained by Willie Mullins, then, who has three other runners who might give him one. DINOBLUE won this last year but finds herself 7/1 here after a lukewarm run in the Hilly Way behind Energumene when she didn’t jump with her usual fluency. She posted a higher RPR that day than in her reappearance last season, though, so she may well come on for the run and the mares allowance coupled with generous odds make her a solid each-way bet. Found A Fifty should run his race but Jack Kennedy is out injured and I fear he may be vulnerable to something with a higher ceiling. Barry Connell has been typically bullish about Marine Nationale, believing he has him back to his best but while I would love him to be right, he has it all to prove over fences. The rest of the field is littered with once classy horses who have since lost their way.

Bet: Dinoblue @ 7/1 1pt EW

1:55 Kempton – Wayward Lad Novices Chase 2m

There is another mouthwatering clash here to follow up Lossiemouth v Constitution Hill and Fact to File v Galopin des Champs. It concerns two further outstanding Mullins and Henderson protagonists in the form of Ballyburn and SIR GINO and I strongly fancy the latter to win here and become Arkle favourite. This precocious 4yo is spoken of extremely highly by connections and has only run four times under rules in Britain, but his form is stacking up nicely and the (racing) world is his oyster. He beat Greatwood winner (and then Triumph favourite) Burdett Road by an easy 10 lengths on just his second start and was most recently won the Fighting Fifth very easily in the absence of Constitution Hill. In my view, his most impressive performance was at Aintree where he was less fluent but lumbered up alongside some smart novices 2 out before putting them away like they were 120s handicappers. Nicky Henderson’s glowing reports of his schooling over fences adds fuel to the fire and I think this horse will reach the very, very top.

It wouldn’t be presumptuous to label Ballyburn as last season’s best novice hurdler by some margin. He recently bolted up by 13 lengths on his chase debut and there is of course lots to like, but I have my reservations about him in a contest like this. Firstly, he didn’t exactly jump like a natural two-mile chaser at Punchestown when totally gifted the lead, leaving the impression he might be most effective over further in line with his pedigree. Secondly, last season’s best novice hurdlers haven’t been covering themselves in glory this season – Firefox, Slade Steel and Mystical Power have all been disappointing and it may be that the form is hollow. I would much rather side with Sir Gino over 2m at Kempton.

Bet: Sir Gino @ 5/4 3pt Win

2:30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Handicap Chase 2m

I don’t have a strong opinion here other than that I would oppose Boothill and Edwardstone, who may be vulnerable to those lurking further down the weights in a handicap like this. Martator has been a revelation for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch since winning at Newbury in March and now goes for a six-timer having been hiked 33lb since then. There is no reason he shouldn’t continue his progress for his firing yard and he would enter the Champion Chase reckoning if he won this. He has done most of his winning on galloping tracks though and Kempton often plays into the hands of more prominent travellers. There are a couple here at bigger prices and I will probably back one of them each-way. Sans Bruit was third in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, form that looks strong through JPR One and Djelo. He is a strong traveller who should relish this tighter test over a furlong shorter. Editeur du Gite won this race for the second time last year from a mark of 159. He has been plummeting down the weights in five starts since (none of which he was fancied in). It may well be that the Moores have identified this as a winnable target again for the 10-year-old and he races off a 9lb lower mark. Soul Icon could also be well treated from a mark of 139 back on ground he likes and the booking of Cobden is a plus.

2:50 Chepstow – Welsh National

This is a wonderful race and it’s a shame that erstwhile favourite Mr Vango has been ruled out for Sara Bradstock. It is perhaps the most gruelling test of the jumps season and it is interesting that only four of the past fourteen winners have carried more than 11st. Two of them were Gold Cup winners (Synchronised and Native River) and last year’s winner Nassalam ran away with a race which fell apart on his favoured deep ground. Nothing in this field strikes as being close to that level, so it may be wise to look down the weights.

Glamorgan trainer Sam Thomas won this with Iwilldoit in 2021 and I like the chances of JUBILEE EXPRESS. He is very lightly raced having run just four times over fences and glimpses of form suggest he could be lightly treated off 126 (e.g. a close second to Broadway Boy in a 3m hurdle). He looks like he stays all day and connections will be delighted with his racing weight of 10-4. ATLANTA BRAVE has a very similar profile being lightly raced and in the hands of another Welsh National-winning trainer Kerry Lee, who triumphed with Mountainous in 2015. He was ¾ length second to Surrey Quest in last year’s Mandarin Chase at Newbury, who went on to finish a nose second in the Scottish National and also ran well at Cheltenham on reappearance this season. Atlanta Brave is only 2lb higher here and ran respectably when making the running in a novice handicap last time out. I think this marathon trip will suit perfectly and 25/1 looks massive if this has been mapped out for him.

Bet: Jubilee Express @ 8/1 1pt Win

Bet: Atlanta Brave @ 25/1 0.5pt EW

Saturday 28th December

2:00 Leopardstown – Savills Hurdle 2m7½f

Gordon Elliott hinted that Teahupoo might come here after defeat in the Hatton’s Grace but he stays at home, leaving behind a motley crew of misfits. Home By The Lee tops the market on account of his victory over Bob Olinger in the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in November to reverse the placings of the same race last year, but that is hardly barnstorming form and I’m reluctant to back a horse who flopped here last year and lacks a statement Grade 1 performance to hold onto. I’m much more interested by HEWICK, who swerves the King George to run here. He was far superior to Home By The Lee in the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil in May and has proved his wellbeing with a brilliant run in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal. The ground is in his favour and I’m happy to take the 8/1 each-way on offer to give his caretaker trainer Tara Lee Cogan a Christmas Grade 1.

Bet: Hewick @ 8/1 0.5pt Win

2:35 Leopardstown – Savills Chase 3m½f

This is a fascinating contest between dual Gold Cup winner Galopin des Champs and stablemate Fact to File, his principal market rival for the blue riband in March and arguably the most promising staying chaser in training. We learned little from the John Durkan other than the fact they are both in fine fettle and they are equally difficult to split here. It is hardly imaginative to say that one of them will win but it is unfortunately the only strong opinion I can offer. If pushed, I would side with Galopin des Champs at a marginally bigger price, who tends to save his best for this track. He had a niggle at the beginning of the season which disrupted his preparation for the John Durkan, which makes his performance all the more impressive in a contest which surely played into the hands of his younger stablemate, clearly the speedier of the two. He is now 7 from 8 going left-handed over fences (the anomaly being when falling at the last in the Turners) and it is hardly a stretch to say that he has never looked to be in trouble in any of those races. Whatever happens, I expect each of them to remain at the top of the pile once March comes around. Another angle into this race might be to find something each-way at a bigger price, but even that proves difficult. Gerri Colombe has been put firmly in his place a number of times by Galopin des Champs, whatever excuses you make. He ran no sort of race at Down Royal and 8/1 is meagre. I Am Maximus makes his seasonal reappearance here and surely has bigger targets ahead. The rest are some way off the required level.

Selections:

Boxing Day

1:05 Aintree Country Mile 5/1 0.5pt Win

1:20 Kempton Hyland 9/2 0.5pt Win

2:20 Leopardstown Better Days Ahead 11/8 1.5pt Win

2:30 Kempton* Banbridge 5/1 1pt Win

L’Homme Presse 10/1 0.5pt EW

27th November

1:10 Leopardstown Dinoblue 7/1 1pt EW

1:55 Kempton Sir Gino 5/4 3pt Win

2:50 Chepstow Jubilee Express 8/1 1pt Win

Atlanta Brave 25/1 0.5pt EW