1:20 Triumph Hurdle 2m1f
It sounds obvious, but my only real opinion here is that the two English horses are probably a class apart from the rest and that one of them will win. They both have strong claims for different reasons – one has been consistently strong on the clock and the other has a lofty reputation. Most shrewd advice has centred on the idea that East India Dock has been underpriced on what he has achieved but I think that the pendulum may have swung back to LULAMBA as the value in this race. His performance at Ascot was serious and gave me confidence that he will have no problem coming to Cheltenham with so little experience. He jumped, settled and quickened very professionally for a juvenile, justifying an enormous pre-race gamble on his debut for Nicky Henderson after arriving from Arnaud Chaille-Chaille. No other hurdler on the same card clocked a faster time after the second last and he travels like he will improve for further. Yes, he needs to prove it, but he looks a bit special and 2/1 seems reasonable to me.
Bet: Lulamba @ 5/2 2pt Win
2:00 County Hurdle 2m1f
Like the Martin Pipe this race tends to be used as a stepping stone for horses on their way to graded company and it is usually one of the more predictable handicaps, with nine of the last ten renewals won by Dan Skelton or Willie Mullins. KARGESE rose to the top of a smart crop of juveniles last season and looks very well-handicapped off a mark of 141. There was an overreaction to her reappearance at Ascot, where she was entitled to improve for the run and travelled beautifully before being caught out by a canny Skelton ride. She can be quite keen so I will wait as long as I can before backing her, but this is definitely the right race for her and Paul Townend is on board to take advantage. The Moores have had a largely disappointing season but they have hit some vein of form and some of HANSARD’s runs suggest he could make hay from a mark of 142. He was most recently third behind the Champion Hurdle one-two in the Kingwell and I think he wants better ground (the going was changed to soft after that race). Others which appeal are Lark In The Mornin and McLaurey.
Bet: Kargese @ 10/3 2pt Win
Bet: Hansard @ 12/1 1pt EW (5 places)
2:40 Mares Chase 2m4½f
This might be the least interesting race of the festival but it is also the most straightforward from a betting perspective. It would be a shock if it was not won by one of the top three and of them, BRIDES HILL looks an outstanding each-way bet to nothing. She makes the odd mistake at her fences but is otherwise a fairly consistent performer who will like the ground.
Bet: Brides Hill @ 11/2 1pt EW
3:20 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 3m
The Albert Bartlett is a cavalry charge which always seems to throw up big-priced winners, probably because very few of these novices will have experienced an end-to-end gallop over three miles. That said, French raider JET BLUE might make it unnecessary to look further down the field, such was his dominance over course and distance in the trial for this back in December. That race has worked out well and he has been kept for this since by David Cottin. He brings a wealth of experience from bumpers in France and may be more battle-hardened than some of these. More in line with my original theory, I think MA SHANTOU has been massively overlooked at 50/1 for Emma Lavelle. He was sent off 5/2F for the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster and ran very well, doing his best work at the finish and perhaps not benefitting from the sedate pace set by a six-runner field. He is a relentless galloper by Shantou and this should be right up his street. The booking of Harry Cobden is a huge plus.
Bet: Jet Blue @ 13/2 1pt Win
Bet: Ma Shantou @ 50/1 0.5pt EW (4 places)
4:00 Gold Cup 3m2½f
It is difficult to see past GALOPIN DES CHAMPS winning a third consecutive Gold Cup. Once a keen horse who needed settling, he has matured into a fine chaser who has not only won back-to-back Gold Cups but also the two biggest staying chases in Ireland en-route. This season has unfolded exactly as it has the last two seasons: warming up in the John Durkan before completing Savills-Irish Gold Cup double. In fact, his only defeats in his last 12 starts have come at Punchestown at the beginning and end of the season – races which he is never targeted at. He is a model of consistency and has no doubt benefitted from being ridden more prominently in the past couple of seasons. He is an outstanding racehorse and I fully expect him to win.
That said, there is little to be gained from backing him at 8/15 and this is a Gold Cup, after all. Betting without the favourite seems the way to go. Banbridge is certainly the most talented of the remainder and probably the only horse capable of beating Galopin barring unforeseen circumstances. He was immense when winning the King George, eating up ground late on to catch a runaway Il Est Francais on the line. The rest of the field couldn’t go with him. Good ground is absolutely crucial but when he gets his conditions, he is remarkably consistent. He isn’t proven over this extended three miles but on the evidence of the King George, there seems no reason why he wouldn’t stay and his versatility over different trips is a testament to his ability.
The importance of being able to jump at pace has never been so blindingly obvious as this week, which is why I would be against the two JP McManus horses, Inothewayurthinkin and Corbetts Cross. MONTY’S STAR is the runner who I find most interesting. You need to look beyond Henry de Bromhead’s two winners yesterday to realise how well his horses are running: Quilixios was set to contest the Champion Chase, Ballyadam ran another cracker in the Coral Cup and Heart Wood and Envoi Allen took second and third in the Ryanair. He knows how to ready one for the Gold Cup and this has been the plan for Monty’s Star all season. Fact to File paid homage to last season’s Brown Advisory yesterday and there is a slight feeling that there might be improvement to come over an extended trip, drawing to mind comparisons with Minella Indo, who won this in the same colours in 2021.
Bet: Monty’s Star @ 10/1 1pt EW
4:40 Foxhunters 3m2½f
A brilliant race but not one I will be having a bet in.
5:20 Martin Pipe 2m4½f
Kopeck de Mee has been the talking horse of the festival handicapping-wise due to the difficulties translating from the French system. He may well be thrown in but this race has been good to me in the last few years and I would prefer to side with a couple at slightly bigger prices. TAPONTHEGO returns to this trip after a pair of runs over two miles, most recently plugging on from the back behind William Munny. Mike O’Connor was on board that day and I think this has been the plan ever since finishing second at Leopardstown in December. The form of both of his runs over 2m4f have been franked. EAST INDIA EXPRESS is two from two in handicaps and I think there is still room for maneouvre from his mark. He was originally intended for a sales race at Newbury as a bumper horse but they couldn’t get him there due to ongoing coughing. He has since looked very good over hurdles and his Ascot win has worked out well. He looks to have a bit of boot and his full-brother was second in the Scottish National last year. Nicky had a 1-2 in the Pertemps yesterday and Freddie Gordon keeps the ride.
Bet: Taponthego @ 7/1 1pt EW (6 places)
Bet: East India Express @ 9/1 1pt EW (6 places)
Otis Brankin-Frisby.
Cheltenham 2025 Day 4 Selections
* = backed antepost.
1:20 Lulamba 5/2 2pt Win
2:00 Kargese 10/3 2pt Win
Hansard 12/1 1pt EW (5)
2:40 Brides Hill 11/2 1pt EW
3:20 Jet Blue 13/2 1pt Win
Ma Shantou 50/1 0.5pt EW (4)
4:00 Monty’s Star 11/1 1pt EW
4:40 -
5:20 Taponthego 7/1 1pt EW (6)
East India Express 9/1 1pt EW (6)
Festival Multiples
E/W Super Yankee 2.6pt total
Transmission 5/1 (National Hunt Chase)
Unexpected Party 8/1 (Grand Annual)
Pic Roc 14/1 (Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase)
The Wallpark 14/1 (Stayers Hurdle)
Lulamba 9/4 (Triumph Hurdle)
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