1:20 Mares Novices Hurdle 2m1f
It is difficult to gauge how good these novice mares really are as most of them have a string of 1s to their name. Sixandahalf brings plenty of experience from the flat and jumped like a natural last time. My only slight concern is whether Cheltenham will suit her and she has only run once over hurdles. Experience pays in this race – 6 of the last 9 winners had run at least four times over hurdles (the other three at least twice) and 4 of the last 8 have been second-season novices. Maughreen has also only once over hurdles, sent off 4/11 favourite for a maiden where her only market rival jumped terribly. There is nothing to suggest that the form of either of her two wins is particularly strong and if she had a different name or was trained by someone else, she’d be further down the betting in my book.
There are two that I will take against the field. AIR OF ENTITLEMENT looks overpriced for Henry de Bromhead. He has a good record in this race and his horses ran quietly well yesterday. This mare beat Ballybow (won twice since) comfortably at Down Royal and has been kept fresh for this. She is admittedly bred for further but that is no bad thing for a 24-runner race likely to be full of keen horses. I backed JUST A ROSE at 16/1 non-runner no bet for this after her racecourse debut at Taunton, the idea being that she would only run at the festival if she won the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown. She was taken out of that race late on account of the testing ground and comes here with only one hurdles appearance, which is far from ideal, but I wouldn’t give up on her. It is hard to quantify exactly what she did at Taunton but she looked impressive under Freddie Gingell, who had a hard time pulling her up and rides her again here. Nicholls has said that it is very difficult to split her and Jubilee Alpha on their work at home. She was bought for £175,000 at a 2023 December Cheltenham Sale after winning a point in which she beat Country Mile, who has already looked smart over hurdles for the Skeltons. The 20/1 widely available still appeals, though perhaps for a smaller stake.
Bet: Air Of Entitlement @ 20/1 1pt EW (5 places)
Bet: Just A Rose @ 20/1 1pt EW (5 places)
Advised antepost @ 16/1 2pt EW
2:00 Novices Handicap Chase 2m4½f
The old version of this race used to favour horses that had run well at Cheltenham before, not least in the novice handicap chase on Trials Day which was taken in by the likes of Mister Whitaker and Imperial Aura on their way to winning this. Time and time again horses that run well in chases at Cheltenham that season back that up at the festival, especially over two-and-a-half miles. That logic points favourably towards SPRINGWELL BAY, whose form in Cheltenham handicaps this season is stacking up nicely. He ran well when too keen behind Hyland over three miles and has since run notably well dropped back in trip. He was second to the Arkle winner Jango Baie when conceding 8lb and most recently hacked up by nine lengths over course and distance. A good jumper, he is sharply progressive and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in graded company before long.
I am also very sweet on the chances of PIC ROC. He was a fairly smart novice hurdler, beating Inthewaterside before finishing second in two 17-runner handicaps at Sandown when somewhat robbed of the latter. He never looked like a natural over hurdles and the evidence already suggests he will be better for a fence. I particularly liked his run at Newbury behind Lord of Thunder, who I thought was particularly well-handicapped on a line through his run behind Handstands. A 2lb rise is very workable. Ben Pauling has been in terrific form of late and nominated this horse as one of his best chances at the festival.
Bet: Springwell Bay @ 13/2 1pt EW (6 places)
Bet: Pic Roc @ 11/1 1pt EW (5 places)
2:40 Pertemps Final 3m
Only 2 of the last 26 winners of the Pertemps have won one of the qualifiers – it seems there are horses that are aimed to win those and horses that are simply trying to get a handicap mark with this race in mind. Feet Of A Dancer finished third in the Leopardstown qualifier and arrives here with a very similar profile to Mrs Milner, who won this race for Paul Nolan in 2021. He would be my pick from the top of the market but ZAIN NIGHTS could be very well-handicapped for Lucy Wadham, who hoped he would “be good enough for something like the Pertemps” back in May after winning a handicap at Haydock from just 3lb lower. He qualified on his first attempt in October in a strong race behind The Wallpark and Gowel Road, each of whom run in the Stayers later on the card. He was given a mark of 130 after that race and has been given three quiet runs since, dropping a further 2lb. I think that some of the British trainers are figuring out how to plot for these festival handicaps again and with decent ground and Charlie Deutsch on board, he represents excellent value.
Bet: Zain Nights @ 22/1 1pt EW (6 places)
3:20 Ryanair Chase 2m4½f
This is an interesting Ryanair with several horses convening over the intermediate trip in order to avoid Jonbon and Galopin des Champs. Most of the field have questions attached and you could argue that the least unknown quantity is last year’s winner Protektorat, who would prefer cut in the ground but is remarkably consistent and in the past season has proven that he far more effective over this trip than an extended three miles. But I am coming round to the idea (fact) that the same might be true of FACT TO FILE, who like Protektorat last year has had his Gold Cup campaign dropped after not seeming like he. It would stay 3m2f. Last year’s Brown Advisory winner remains a very talented horse and coming back down in trip will allow him to use his jumping which, unlike some of the favourites which have been turned over in the past couple of days, is very good.
DJELO is a horse that I love and with the arrival of some flashier names he has gone slightly under the radar, although confidence is slightly dented by Venetia Williams’s form in the last couple of weeks. He had some smart hurdles form but seems to have gone to another level over fences. He isn’t the biggest but he is tough and a very clever jumper, quick from A to B whichever way he approaches a fence. He arguably has some of the best form on offer this season, too, beating Protektorat by six lengths at Huntingdon and breezing up in the Denman Chase when giving weight to a useful field. You can ignore his run at Windsor, a very tight track which has already thrown up some unusual results, while he looks ground-versatile judged on his run in the Haldon Gold Cup. He was for a long time my NAP of the whole festival but yard form means he is now just worth 1pt to win.
MASTER CHEWY needs to step up but encounters two-and-a-half miles for the first time and I think he is overpriced. He shouldered 12st at Ascot to finish among some featherweight handicappers and conceded weight to Libberty Hunter when beating him at Newbury. Last year he was going very nicely in the Arkle before falling and backed that up with a fine second at Aintree when nabbed on the line by Found A Fifty. His pedigree and performances suggest he might appreciate a bit further and 2m4½f on decent ground looks perfect. I see no reason he should be 50/1 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a big race.
Bet: Straight Forecasts x2 0.5pt each (1pt total)
1st Fact To File 11/8
2nd Protektorat 13/2, Jungle Boogie 12/1
Bet: Djelo 14/1 1pt Win
Bet: Master Chewy @ 50/1 0.5pt EW
4:00 Stayers Hurdle 3m
Teahupoo’s grip on this division is not as firm as people like to suggest and I am desperate to take him on here. He beat a field of veterans in a bit of a sprint here last year and comes into a much deeper race with a less-than-ideal prep. There is surely a better bet to be had and I think that Gordon Elliott’s other runner, THE WALLPARK, is very interesting. He was for some time the Pertemps favourite, so it was a vote of confidence to put him into this. He has been improving at a rate of knots and, crucially, I don’t think he has had the chance to show what he can do over a truly run three miles. He came from the back of the field in a Pertemps qualifier to beat Gowel Road, giving him 4lb and extending at the finish. The form has since been franked and I loved his next run in the Long Walk where he got caught too far back in a slowly run race but flew home for fourth. After looking well beaten he was faster from the second last to the finish than any other hurdler on the card, despite racing over the longest trip. He seems to race a bit lazily, which can be a good thing for this race and he almost reminds me of Paisley Park.
I have also backed the other young improver LUCKY PLACE, who has some very appealing form provided he handles the step up in trip. He was a staying-on fourth in the Coral Cup last year and battled on to win the Relkeel on New Years Day, conceding 6lb to Cheltenham specialist Gowel Road. The way he saw out the trip on soft ground gave me confidence he would get three miles and Gowel Road has since gone on to frank that form in the Cleeve. They have opted to keep him at home for this rather than test him over three miles, so the new trip has to be taken on trust, but he is a straightforward and likeable horse who strikes as a good each-way bet in a race where a few of the others have questions to answer. It would be typical of this year’s festival for Nicky to win the Stayers (a race he hasn’t won since 2000) after Constitution Hill and Jonbon disappointing.
Bet: The Wallpark @ 16/1* 1pt EW
Bet: Lucky Place @ 7/1 1pt EW (4 places)
4:40 Plate Handicap Chase 2m4½f
The logic behind the novice handicap also applies here – horses with proven form over two-and-a-half miles at Cheltenham are worth keeping on side and Jagwar is a great bet to follow up his win on Trials Day. That race is always strong and has been an extraordinary indicator of strong festival performances in the past, having been won by the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Stage Star, Imperial Aura, Simply the Betts and Mister Whitaker in recent years. The ability to jump the fences shouldn’t be underestimated and he has been lined up for this by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerreiro. MASACCIO was third behind Jagwar on Trials Day but wasn’t beaten far and runs at a far more appealing price. He is only 1lb higher for that run and prior to that ran The Jukebox Man close at Newbury in a novice chase. Alan King gave him a few festival entries but he seems to have chosen the right one. I don’t think he quite stays three miles so 2m4½f on the New Course is perfect.
Ben Pauling won this with Shakem Up’arry last year and PERSONAL AMBITION looks nicely handicapped for him again. He is still a maiden over fences but was set to win a Grade 2 novice chase at Ascot before belting the last and he ran well when carrying a big weight at Newbury in a novice handicap which has worked out well. First-time cheekpieces might give him the nudge he needs.
Bet: Masaccio @ 15/2 1pt EW (5 places)
Bet: Personal Ambition @ 16/1 0.5pt EW (5 places)
5:20 Kim Muir 3m2f
The last six winners of this have all been novices and 15 of the last 19 achieved their best RPRs within their previous two runs, suggesting that this tends to go to horses which are coming to the boil over fences. The two at the top of the market both appeal. WALKING ON AIR is would be extremely well-handicapped if rediscovering some of old form for new trainer Gary Brown. He showed signs of revival in the Great Yorkshire when he joined the leader before coming down at the last and up only 4lb, he could be thrown in. That form has been franked by The Changing Man in the Ultima and how extraordinary would it be if after yesterday Michael O’Sullivan’s brother, Alan, was to win the amateur race. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED finished a close second in three handicaps at Cheltenham last year and looks a very reliable bet after finishing second in the Paddy Power when making all the running. That is always a strong race and he has been kept at home for this. Others which make the shortlist are Git Maker, Nine Graces and Manothepeople.
Bet: Walking On Air @ 4/1 1pt Win
Bet: Midnight Our Fred @ 11/2 1pt Win
Otis Brankin-Frisby.
Cheltenham 2025 Day 3 Selections
* = backed antepost.
1:20 Air Of Entitlement 20/1 1pt EW (5)
Just A Rose 20/1 1pt EW (5)
2:00 Springwell Bay 13/2 1pt EW (6)
Pic Roc 11/1 1pt EW (5)
2:40 Zain Nights 22/1 1pt EW (6) NAP
3:20 Forecasts x2 1pt total
(1st Fact to File, 2nd Protektorat & Jungle Boogie)
Djelo 14/1 1pt Win
Master Chewy 50/1 0.5pt EW
4:00 The Wallpark 16/1* 1pt EW
Lucky Place 7/1 1pt EW (4)
4:40 Masaccio 15/2 1pt EW (5)
Personal Ambition 16/1 0.5pt EW (5)
5:20 Walking On Air 4/1 1pt Win
Midnight Our Fred 11/2 1pt Win
E/W Yankee 1.1pt total
2:00 Pic Roc 11/1 (5)
2:40 Zain Nights 22/1 (6)
4:00 Lucky Place 7/1 (4)
4:40 Midnight Our Fred 11/2 (5)
Festival Multiples
E/W Super Yankee 2.6pt total
Transmission 5/1 (National Hunt Chase)
Unexpected Party 8/1 (Grand Annual)
Pic Roc 14/1 (Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase)
The Wallpark 14/1 (Stayers Hurdle)
Lulamba 9/4 (Triumph Hurdle)
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