1:20 Supreme Novices Hurdle 2m½f
It is difficult to know how good this crop of novice hurdlers are but one thing we already know is that Kopek des Bordes is exceptional. He hinted at some ability when managing to win a deep 23-runner maiden despite jumping appallingly on hurdles debut at Leopardstown. He jumped much better at the DRF next time out to win the two-mile novice hurdle by a wider margin than the likes of Ballyburn, Sir Gerhard, Samcro and Vautour managed from similarly short prices. The form of his debut win has been franked by Kawaboomga and with huge scope for improvement, it is difficult to go against him. Don’t be disheartened if he seems lively in the preliminaries – at Leopardstown he was very difficult to saddle and sweated profusely, but it made no difference. He has been odds-on for a long time but has been pushed out to odds-against after the declaration of a first-time hood, although I’d prefer to put him in a multiple which covers some of the races later on the card.
With bookmakers keen to get your business for the first race of the festival, it might be worth finding an each-way angle into the race. Romeo Coolio has been kept for this and is a reliable sort who should run his race. He was a smooth-travelling second in the Champion Bumper last year despite being sent off 18/1 and you can forgive his second at Fairyhouse in a race which turned into a sprint. The strong pace of a Supreme is exactly what he needs and with four places on offer, he is a reliable each-way proposition. The other horse I like is WILLIAM MUNNY, who would be a fitting and very emotional winner for Barry Connell in the silks worn by the late Michael O’Sullivan when winning this race just two years ago. His hopes aren’t purely sentimental. He was arguably Ireland’s most promising bumper horse at one point and probably wasn’t seen to best effect in the Irish Champion Bumper when short of room off a slow pace. He was beaten by Workahead at Christmas but everything went right for the winner that day whereas he jumped terribly, and that form may well be reversed. The penny seemed to drop at Punchestown last time out and, like Romeo Coolio, he should benefit from being towed along in a race like this.
Bet: William Munny @ 9/1 1pt Win
2:00 Arkle Novices Chase 2m
This was for a long time billed as a match between two precocious 5-year-olds until Sir Gino was sadly ruled out for the season in early February. He looked like a champion in waiting but this is surely now a procession for MAJBOROUGH, who is beginning to fulfil his similarly elevated reputation since winning the Triumph last year. They showed little hesitation in sending him straight over fences and he won the Irish Arkle very impressively when pulling nine lengths clear of Touch Me Not. His jumping is hardly electric but he is a big horse who seems to get away with it and he is entitled to improve on just his third chase start. I’m not convinced he would have had the speed to live with Sir Gino over two miles on the Old Course, but he should have about a stone in hand here. His odds are restrictive, though, and I would be hesitant to pile in. The forecast might have been the way to go but I am struggling to pick between the horses in behind him, all of whom are terrific jumpers. With only two places on offer, it is difficult to find an angle into the race.
2:40 Ultima Handicap Chase 3m1f
This race tends to favour young, unexposed British horses given how the Irish are treated in the handicap. 13 of the last 16 winners have been novices or second-season chasers and there has been no Irish winner since 2006. Despite the festival changes reducing the number of novices, it remains very competitive. THE CHANGING MAN is a second-season novice who has returned in great form after a wind op over the summer and his performances in valuable handicaps this season have been holding up particularly well. He ran two Venetia Williams winners close during a period when her horses were running out of their skin, pulling clear with Frero Banbou (then rated 127 with Ned Fox claiming 5lb) at Newcastle before finishing half-a-length second at Ascot to Victorrino, who won over the same course and distance next time out. I think a mark of 140 is a very accommodating of his chances here and winning the Reynoldstown in a canter was the perfect warm-up. That said, he has been well-found in the market now and unless you have backed him antepost there is enough depth in the race to look elsewhere.
Though he only has a small string, Sam Thomas is a terrific trainer and it would not surprise me if KATATE DORI followed up his convincing Kempton success with another big run here. He might have been well treated but the way he turned a very competitive handicap into a non-event was extraordinary, in particular the effortless midrace move he made from the back of the field. A 12lb rise may not be enough to stop him. KING TURGEON was hugely progressive earlier in the season and seems to have been forgotten about after being pulled up in the Edinburgh National. David Pipe could offer no explanation for that run other than that he might not have enjoyed staying overnight in Scotland. In fairness, it is some journey from Somerset and if we excuse that run, he has a profile and running style which tends to be rewarded in this race. The Somerset National looks like very good form with Katate Dori and Credo both bolting up next time out. He travelled like the best horse in that race and arrives here on the same mark for a trainer who has won this race three times. Already a winner at Cheltenham this season, he will be ridden prominently and could still be on the upgrade. He is a hopeful selection in a race where you could make a strong case for almost every horse in the field. For what it’s worth, I also like Whistle Stop Tour, Myretown, The Short Go and Grandeur D’Ame.
Bet: Katate Dori @ 15/2 1pt Win
Bet: King Turgeon @ 22/1 0.5pt EW (6 places)
Bet: The Changing Man @ 12/1* 1pt Win
3:20 Mares Hurdle 2m4f
The diversion of Brighterdaysahead to the Champion Hurdle had momentarily made this a brilliant race until Lossiemouth was declared at the final hour. It is a real shame that connections have decided to send her here despite the Champion Hurdle being a two-year plan. She instead becomes yet another odds-on favourite on the first day and takes much of the betting interest out of this. The argument being made against her is that she hasn’t quite been herself this season and arrives here off the back of a very heavy fall at Leopardstown. Pitching her into shallower waters could be seen as a lack of confidence behind her but it is probably just opportunist from connections, who clearly feel they are up against it in the championship race. She is better suited to this trip and I find it difficult to look past her in a race where she was so impressive last year. She doesn’t particularly appeal at odds-on but might be worth a saver depending on your position from the previous races.
You could make some sort of case for most of the mares beyond her. The two I was most interested in – Golden Ace and Kargese – have both taken up engagements in other races. Joyeuse was outstanding at Newbury but she still has a fair bit to find and I think she has been overestimated simply because she was supplemented by JP McManus, who will want to have chances in as many races as he can. Jade de Grugy is solid but the one who could be overpriced is KALA CONTI, who has been kept fresh since running July Flower close at Leopardstown in December when giving her 5lb. There is reason to believe she can reverse that form and as a 5-year-old she remains very unexposed, especially at this trip. She has some terrific juvenile form and now becomes Gordon Elliott’s sole hope in the race, with Wodhooh not being supplemented.
Bet: Kala Conti @ 14/1 0.5pt EW
4:00 Champion Hurdle 2m½f
Even without Lossiemouth this remains a brilliant Champion Hurdle, but in my view the hype surrounding Brighterdaysahead is just a distraction from the fact that CONSTITUTION HILL is still a generational racehorse. When you are so far in the ascendancy the fall from grace can be brutal, and so it proved when his absence last season, along with a couple of unconvincing racecourse gallops, prompted severe public diagnoses and even whispers of his retirement. A year ago it was hardly imaginative to think of him as the greatest hurdler of all time and confidence has been duly restored at Seven Barrows. I still don’t think he needs to be at his absolute best to win this and you could argue the price is generous for a horse who is yet to be beaten (or even close to it). I will not be betting in the race outright but would absolutely love him to win.
The tactical interest lies in how Gigginstown try to beat him. King of Kingsfield has been put in as a pacemaker in the hope that it will be made a proper test at two miles, with Brighterdaysahead likely taking the mantle late on, much like she did at Leopardstown. Thing is, by trying to beat Constitution Hill they are just playing into his hands. Arguably his most impressive performance came when stalking another tearaway in the Supreme and, given that he sometimes takes a few nudges to click into gear in lesser races, coming off a strong pace will surely make him look even better. Brighterdaysahead was extraordinary at Christmas but, whichever way you look at it, State Man didn’t run any sort of a race. It is easy to forget that she underperformed at Cheltenham last year, too. The shorter trip was to blame that day and I don’t think the conditions of this race will bring out the divine revelation some people are imagining. State Man’s is an admirable 165 horse but his time at the top is surely done and it would be some sort of tragedy if he won.
Prediction: Constitution Hill to sit on the heels of the leaders and win impressively. I hope he does.
4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m½f
This race is always very tricky to figure out and throws up lots of big-priced winners. It tends to be full of plot horses and thus becomes a puzzle as to which horses have had their ability disguised in previous races. Joseph O’Brien won this last year with Lark in the Mornin and BEYOND YOUR DREAMS looks set to go very well from the same mark of 122. She ran Total Look very close at Navan in November, switching right late on and leaving the impression she would benefit from a stiffer test of stamina. She then beat Slurricane (won since) off level weights at Fairyhouse when very eyecatching at the finish and, crucially for a Boodles horse, there is lots of room for her jumping to bring about the requisite improvement. Cheekpieces are applied and she looks every inch a plot.
The British haven’t won this since 2017 but there are two horses I’ve picked out who may prove well beyond than their marks in time. LIAM SWAGGER is one of a string of juveniles trained by James Owen and warmed up with a smooth win on the flat last week. I don’t think he liked the soft ground at Newbury last time out, which would make sense given his pedigree, but he ran a subsequent winner for Alan King close when conceding 10lb. He wears cheekpieces over hurdles for the first time and could be underestimated off 124. Quantock Hills also appeals at a big price. He scoped badly after his last run and prior to that he travelled strongly into a Triumph Trial before idling a little in front. Total Look finished third that day but is 9lb worse off at the weights.
Bet: Beyond Your Dreams @ 6/1 1pt Win
Bet: Liam Swagger @ 12/1 1pt Win
5:20 National Hunt Novices Handicap Chase 3m6f
The National Hunt Chase has been made a handicap this year and is accordingly much harder to assess. I think the Irish horses are too short in the market, especially Now Is The Hour who wants the ground hock-deep and is probably there out of respect for his trainer more than anything. I have come round to the idea that the winner will come from the novice handicap at Cheltenham in December and think you could do worse than dutching HAITI COULEURS and TRANSMISSION. They were given very different rides that day – Haiti Couleurs jumped well and made the running over 3m1½f that day whereas Transmission was dropped right out the back and never looked to be on terms before finishing like a train for second. It looked like a step up to a marathon trip would reverse those placings but you could also argue that Haiti Couleurs was idling in front and that the winning margin could have been bigger. Either way, I think they will both be suited the step up in trip and each of them has had a pleasing warm-up over hurdles. Neil Mulholland did the same thing with The Druids Nephew in the Cleeve before he won the Ultima in 2015.
Bet: Haiti Couleurs @ 9/2 1pt Win
Bet: Transmission @ 5/1 1pt Win
Otis Brankin-Frisby
Cheltenham 2025 Day 1 Selections
* = backed antepost.
1:20 William Munny 9/1 1pt Win
2:00 -
2:40 Katate Dori 15/2 1pt Win
King Turgeon 22/1 0.5pt EW (6)
The Changing Man 12/1* 1pt Win
3:20 Kala Conti 14/1 0.5pt EW
4:00 -
4:40 Beyond Your Dreams 6/1 1pt Win
Liam Swagger 12/1 1pt Win
5:20 Haiti Couleurs 9/2 1pt Win
Transmission 5/1 1pt Win NAP
Treble 2pt Win
1:20 Kopek des Bordes 11/10
2:00 Majborough 4/7
4:00 Constitution Hill 8/13
E/W Trixie 2pt total
1:20 Romeo Coolio 13/2 (4)
2:40 Katate Dori 13/2 (7)
4:40 Liam Swagger 12/1 (6)
Festival Multiples
E/W Super Yankee 2.6pt total
Transmission 5/1 (National Hunt Chase)
Unexpected Party 8/1 (Grand Annual)
Pic Roc 14/1 (Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase)
The Wallpark 14/1 (Stayers Hurdle)
Lulamba 9/4 (Triumph Hurdle)
5-Fold Accumulator 2pt win
Constitution Hill 8/13 (Champion Hurdle)
Ballyburn 11/10 (Brown Advisory Novices Chase)
Jonbon 10/11 (Champion Chase)
Dinoblue 6/5 (Mares Chase)
Galopin des Champs 1/2 (Gold Cup)
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