The markets for the festival are beginning to take shape and they forecast vastly different outcomes to last year, particularly in the top races. With Constitution Hill coming back to the boil, Jonbon toying with the 2m chase division and last spring’s troubles a distant memory, Seven Barrows currently houses one of its strongest festival squads for some time.
Perhaps most exciting are Henderson’s five and four-year-old prospects, Sir Gino and Lulamba, both of whom were bought for the Donnellys after impressing on debut at Auteuil for Arnaud Chaille-Chaille. Sir Gino is a warm order for the Arkle at 8/11 and Lulamba finds himself at the head of the Triumph market following a monumental gamble preceding his winning debut at Ascot. What has struck me most about them is how professionally they race for such young horses. Sir Gino won the Fighting Fifth with such maturity and was exceptional when defeating Ballyburn on chase debut, taking just two fences to adjust before travelling and jumping like an elite two-mile chaser. Lulamba has run only once but settled, jumped and quickened beautifully to put away a smart horse rated 111 on the flat. Along with Galopin des Champs in the Gold Cup, I think they rate the strongest favourites across the four days at present, but it makes sense to wait until March.
Selections
Ballyburn @ 7/2 (Brown Advisory Novices Chase)
2pt Win
Given how good Sir Gino looks, last season’s best novice hurdler deserves some credit for finishing second to him when trip, track and ground conspired against him. Ballyburn has always looked like a stayer to me and, by Flemensfirth out of a mare who produced Noble Endeavour, his pedigree would suggest the same. He was so visually impressive over hurdles last year that some were touting him as a Champion Hurdle protagonist, but I think that impression had more to do with the weakness of the division than anything. It is easy to forget that the Gallagher that he won was over 2m5f and he jumped like a three-miler on chase debut.
He recorded an RPR of 158 in the Wayward Lad, 4lb higher than what anything else in this field has achieved over fences (bar Ile Atlantique) and should improve on that under more suitable conditions. There have been whispers that he might still head to the Arkle if the ground were to come up testing, but Mullins already has a strong hand in that race and given what happened over Christmas, that looks the wrong decision to me. This bet partly assumes he will win the novice chase at Leopardstown over 2m5½f and, if he does, 7/2 will look very generous.
Just A Rose @ 16/1 (Mares Novices Hurdle)
2pt each-way NRNB
Just A Rose bolted up on debut for Paul Nicholls the other day, who was at Taunton to watch her. It was admittedly a weak race but she won by 26 lengths and Freddie Gingell had a hard time pulling her up. It is the circumstantial evidence that I find interesting, though. She was bought for £175,000 at a 2023 December Cheltenham Sale after winning a point at Chaddesley Corbett, in which she beat Country Mile who has already looked smart over hurdles for the Skeltons. She is now part-owned by Kate and Andrew Brooks, who scaled down their racing operations drastically a couple of years ago. No doubt they will be re-entering the game selectively and she is heading to the Grade 2 mares novice hurdle at Sandown next, won in recent years by Love Envoi (2022) and You Wear It Well (2023) on their way to Cheltenham success.
The non-runner no bet concession is important as with Jubilee Alpha already in the race she may avoid Cheltenham completely. It also offers some reassurance because connections will surely only come here if she wins at Sandown. If that was to happen, her price will plummet.
Supersundae @ 25/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)
1pt each-way
Little could be expected of Supersundae when he was pitched into the Supreme as a 66/1 shot on debut for Willie Mullins. Finishing 10 lengths seventh when held up in last for most of the race
suggests he has some ability and, retaining his novice status this season, I think he is very interesting at a big price in the Albert Bartlett. Following the Supreme, he went on to win a maiden hurdle at short odds in May before reappearing behind The Yellow Clay in the Lawlor’s of Naas, getting caught quite far behind before staying on into second.
The Yellow Clay is a smart horse and arguably boasts the strongest novice hurdling form of anything right now. He is apparently being targeted at the Turners, which may leave the door open for the longer race. Supersundae is entitled to improve for that run and he is entered in the 2m6½f novice hurdle at Leopardstown, after which we should get a better idea of where he sits in the Closutton pecking order (I think quite high). This race is often throws up a big-priced winner, but this horse will be single figures if he wins at the DRF.
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